As we head into 2024, it’s time to look ahead and see what research predicts may be in store for us this year when it comes to business energy predictions.

The good news is that new research on this front predicts that there will be a decrease in the cost of energy for businesses in 2024. This decrease will be, for the most part, as a result of the likelihood of a fall in the wholesale energy price. From September 2023 to the start of January, the wholesale price of energy has seen figures drop to a point where they are 47% lower.

According to industry analysts, this fall is mainly attributed to very strong storage reserves, favourable patterns in the weather and improved supply accessibility. And whilst these same analysts may not be able to fully predict the future, it is very clear that these are all factors that will help to ride-out any shocks to the system that may happen and that will result in a market that is less volatile.

Third party costs

Unfortunately, the predictions for third party costs, distribution and transition costs are that they are likely to remain at levels that are much higher when compared with any historical data. This means that any changes, even small ones, will have an impact.

All in all, what this means for businesses is that whilst the total cost will fall in 2024 for their business energy usage, third party costs will be higher and ultimately bills will still be higher than they were before the price crisis.

Balancing Services Use of System (BSUoS)

The fixed tariff for summer 2024 (April to September) was shared back in April 2023, together with the draft winter 2024 tariff. From this, we already know that the projected costs of BSUoS will be reduced over the coming year

Contracts for Difference (CfD)

The Levy for CfD has had some significant fluctuations, which were to be expected. However, due to a drop in wholesale energy prices, the average CfD forecast shows a price increase; although predicting further into the future this is expected to fall in 2024/25.

Moving further into the year

There may be a glimmer of hope for business energy users as we look further into the future where pricing is concerned. Since April and the last TPC Guide, there has been an emergence of the Energy Bills Discount Scheme which should start having an impact. Additionally, the forthcoming review from Ofgem with regard to the non-domestic supply market is being seen as a possible turning point. This, however, will not take place until the autumn.

The expectation is that the new Autumn Third Party Costs Guide will outline an accelerated pace of modifications and some significant code reviews. The hope is that whilst this may not have much of an impact in 2024, if we look towards 2024/2025 it is possible to predict that a number of third party costs should experience a decrease. There may also be a range of fluctuations and possible changes as well as some increase to TPCs.

For the latest energy tariffs, do get in touch with D-ENERGi for the expertise and experience. For more energy saving tips and advice on how to improve the energy efficiency of your business premises, check out more of our D-ENERGi blogs.